Pipeline

Scoring Engine

The Prophetic Score (0-100): a proprietary multi-factor evaluation synthesising market data, asset characteristics, and predictive signals into a single actionable investment metric with 91% accuracy.

Introduction

The Prophetic Score is our flagship intelligence output—a multi-dimensional evaluation that synthesises decades of transaction data, real-time market signals, and asset-specific characteristics into a single, comparable metric across all 10 luxury segments.

Designed to meet institutional-grade standards, the Score enables investors to quickly assess investment quality, compare opportunities across segments, and monitor portfolio positions over time.

Note: The Prophetic Score is a proprietary metric designed to support, not replace, investment judgment.

Score Overview

The Prophetic Score

json

{
  "prophetic_score": {
    "type": "composite",
    "range": "0-100",
    "accuracy": "91%",
    "segments": 10,
    "update": "market-responsive"
  }
}
```

### Score Characteristics

| Characteristic | Description | Benefit |
|----------------|-------------|---------|
| **Composite** | 6 weighted factors synthesised | Holistic evaluation |
| **Normalised** | 0-100 scale across all segments | Cross-segment comparability |
| **Dynamic** | Market-responsive updates | Current relevance |
| **Validated** | 91% algorithmic accuracy | Reliable foundation |

> **Important:** Higher scores indicate stronger investment profiles based on evaluated criteria.

---

## Score Scale

### Interpretation Framework
```
PROPHETIC SCORE SCALE
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Score       Classification      Interpretation
──────────────────────────────────────────────────
90-100      ██████████████████  Exceptional
80-89       ████████████████░░  Strong
70-79       ██████████████░░░░  Favourable
60-69       ████████████░░░░░░  Moderate
50-59       ██████████░░░░░░░░  Neutral
Below 50    ████████░░░░░░░░░░  Cautious

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
```

| Classification | Typical Profile | Recommendation |
|----------------|-----------------|----------------|
| **Exceptional** (90-100) | Rare, high-demand, proven appreciation | Strong consideration |
| **Strong** (80-89) | Solid fundamentals, positive momentum | Favourable opportunity |
| **Favourable** (70-79) | Good profile, some considerations | Worth evaluation |
| **Moderate** (60-69) | Mixed signals, requires analysis | Selective approach |
| **Neutral** (50-59) | Balanced risk/reward | Context-dependent |
| **Cautious** (<50) | Elevated concerns | Careful consideration |

> **Tip:** Ask Prophetic for the Score of any asset in our 32,000+ coverage.

---

## Scoring Methodology

### The 6 Evaluation Criteria

The Prophetic Score is built on **6 weighted factors**, each calibrated per segment to reflect market-specific dynamics:
```
SCORE COMPOSITION
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

              PROPHETIC SCORE
                    │
    ┌───────┬───────┼───────┬───────┬───────┐
    ▼       ▼       ▼       ▼       ▼       ▼
┌──────┐┌──────┐┌──────┐┌──────┐┌──────┐┌──────┐
│Rarity││Desir.││Histor││Liquid││Recog.││Poten.│
│ 20%  ││ 20%  ││ 15%  ││ 15%  ││ 15%  ││ 15%  │
└──────┘└──────┘└──────┘└──────┘└──────┘└──────┘

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Criteria Definitions

Criterion	Weight	Evaluates	Data Sources
Rarity & Edition	20%	Scarcity, limited editions, production numbers	Product databases, manufacturer data
Market Desirability	20%	Buyer demand, collector interest, trend alignment	Transaction velocity, search data
Historical Valorisation	15%	Past price performance, appreciation trajectory	100+ years archive (art), decades (others)
Liquidity Profile	15%	Ease of exit, market depth, time-to-sale	Platform data, auction frequency
Institutional Recognition	15%	Museum presence, expert validation, awards	Exhibition records, certifications
Appreciation Potential	15%	Forward-looking growth projection	Predictive algorithms, momentum signals

json

{
  "scoring_criteria": {
    "rarity_edition": { "weight": 0.20, "focus": "scarcity" },
    "market_desirability": { "weight": 0.20, "focus": "demand" },
    "historical_valorisation": { "weight": 0.15, "focus": "track_record" },
    "liquidity_profile": { "weight": 0.15, "focus": "exit_potential" },
    "institutional_recognition": { "weight": 0.15, "focus": "validation" },
    "appreciation_potential": { "weight": 0.15, "focus": "forward_outlook" }
  }
}
```

---

## Segment Calibration

### Tailored Weightings

While the 6 criteria remain constant, their relative importance is **calibrated per segment** to reflect market-specific characteristics:
```
SEGMENT CALIBRATION STATUS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Segment              Calibration    Key Weight Emphasis
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Watches              ████████████████████ Refined   Rarity, Liquidity
Sneakers             ██████████████████░░ Refined   Desirability, Liquidity
Fine Wines           ██████████████████░░ Refined   Historical, Recognition
Collectible Cards    ████████████████░░░░ Calibrated Rarity, Liquidity
Contemporary Art     ████████████████░░░░ Calibrated Recognition, Historical
Luxury Bags          ██████████████░░░░░░ Calibrated Desirability, Rarity
High Jewellery       ██████████████░░░░░░ Calibrated Rarity, Recognition
Automobiles          ████████████░░░░░░░░ Calibrated Historical, Rarity
Real Estate          ████████████░░░░░░░░ Adapted    Liquidity, Potential

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
```

### Calibration Example

| Segment | Higher Weight | Lower Weight | Rationale |
|---------|---------------|--------------|-----------|
| **Watches** | Rarity, Liquidity | Recognition | Active secondary market |
| **Contemporary Art** | Recognition, Historical | Liquidity | Institutional validation critical |
| **Sneakers** | Desirability, Liquidity | Historical | Trend-driven, fast-moving |

> **Important:** Segment calibration ensures scores are meaningful within each market context.

---

## Momentum Indicator

### Score Direction

Every Prophetic Score includes a **Momentum indicator** showing short-term directional tendency:
```
MOMENTUM INDICATORS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

  Strong      Moderate     Neutral      Negative
  Positive    Positive
     │           │           │            │
     ▼           ▼           ▼            ▼
─────▲▲──────────▲───────────●────────────▼─────

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
```

| Momentum | Symbol | Meaning | Investment Signal |
|----------|--------|---------|-------------------|
| **Strong Positive** | ▲▲ | Accelerating appreciation | Opportunity window |
| **Moderate Positive** | ▲ | Steady improvement | Favourable trend |
| **Neutral** | ● | Stable position | Hold/monitor |
| **Negative** | ▼ | Declining trajectory | Caution advised |

> **Note:** Momentum indicates short-term tendency; Score reflects overall investment quality.

---

## Score Context

### Relative Positioning

Every Score is contextualised against segment benchmarks:
```
SCORE IN CONTEXT
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

                    Segment Average
                          │
    ◄─────────────────────┼─────────────────────►
    20    40    50    60  │  70    80    90   100
                          │
                          │      ●
                          │   Your Asset
                          │    Score: 78
                          │   (+16 vs avg)

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Context Metric	Description
Segment Average	Mean score for segment
Percentile	Position within segment distribution
vs. Average	Points above/below segment mean

json

{
  "score_context": {
    "asset_score": 78,
    "segment_average": 62,
    "percentile": "top_quartile",
    "vs_average": "+16 points"
  }
}
```

> **Tip:** Ask Prophetic how any asset's Score compares to segment averages.

---

## Confidence Levels

### Score Reliability

Every Score includes a confidence indicator based on underlying data quality:
```
CONFIDENCE LEVELS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Level       Foundation             Reliability
──────────────────────────────────────────────────
High        Multi-source verified  Strong basis
Moderate    Single-source confirmed Standard basis
Limited     Constrained data       Qualified basis

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
```

| Confidence | Data Foundation | Score Reliability |
|------------|-----------------|-------------------|
| **High** | 3+ sources, Market Scout validated | Full confidence |
| **Moderate** | 1-2 sources, validated | Standard confidence |
| **Limited** | Sparse data, flagged | Use with context |

> **Important:** Prophetic always indicates confidence alongside every Score.

---

## Score Output

### Complete Score Response
```
PROPHETIC SCORE OUTPUT
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                                             │
│  PROPHETIC SCORE                            │
│                                             │
│  ██████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░   │
│                                             │
│  Score:           78 / 100                  │
│  Classification:  Favourable        ✅      │
│  Momentum:        Positive          ▲       │
│  Confidence:      High              ✅      │
│                                             │
│  vs. Segment Avg: +16 points               │
│  Percentile:      Top Quartile             │
│                                             │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

API Response Structure

json

{
  "prophetic_score": {
    "score": 78,
    "classification": "favourable",
    "momentum": "positive",
    "confidence": "high",
    "context": {
      "segment_average": 62,
      "percentile": "top_quartile",
      "vs_average": "+16"
    },
    "criteria_breakdown": {
      "rarity_edition": 82,
      "market_desirability": 75,
      "historical_valorisation": 80,
      "liquidity_profile": 74,
      "institutional_recognition": 78,
      "appreciation_potential": 76
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-01-28T10:30:00Z"
  }
}
```

---

## Score Applications

### Investment Use Cases
```
SCORE APPLICATIONS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

           PROPHETIC SCORE
                 │
     ┌───────────┼───────────┐
     ▼           ▼           ▼
┌─────────┐ ┌─────────┐ ┌─────────┐
│ Screen  │ │ Compare │ │ Monitor │
│ Assets  │ │ Options │ │ Changes │
└─────────┘ └─────────┘ └─────────┘

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
```

| Application | Use Case | Example Query |
|-------------|----------|---------------|
| **Screening** | Identify opportunities | "Show watches with Score >80" |
| **Comparison** | Evaluate alternatives | "Compare Daytona vs Royal Oak" |
| **Monitoring** | Track portfolio assets | "Score evolution for my holdings" |
| **Benchmarking** | Assess relative standing | "How does this rank in segment?" |

> **Tip:** Ask Prophetic to compare Scores across multiple assets or segments.

---

## Methodology Principles

### Scoring Philosophy

| Principle | Application |
|-----------|-------------|
| **Data-driven** | Market evidence foundation |
| **Transparent** | Clear interpretation framework |
| **Consistent** | Standardised across segments |
| **Adaptive** | Market-responsive calibration |

### Methodology Integrity
```
SCORING PRINCIPLES
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

✅ METHODOLOGY INCLUDES:
   • 6-factor weighted evaluation
   • Segment-specific calibration
   • Market Scout validation
   • Continuous refinement (91% accuracy)

❌ METHODOLOGY EXCLUDES:
   • Subjective preferences
   • Non-market factors
   • Unverified inputs
   • Speculative assumptions

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

Limitations

Score Boundaries

Limitation	Description	Mitigation
Market scope	Based on available data	Confidence levels indicated
Point-in-time	Reflects current conditions	Momentum shows direction
Quantitative focus	May not capture sentiment	Qualitative context in insights
Segment variation	Calibration differences	Segment-specific interpretation

Appropriate Use

json

{
  "score_use": {
    "designed_for": ["screening", "comparison", "monitoring", "benchmarking"],
    "not_designed_for": ["guaranteed_outcomes", "sole_decision_basis"],
    "recommendation": "Use with professional judgment"
  }
}

Important: Scores support but do not replace comprehensive investment analysis and professional advice.

Historical Datasets

Prediction Algorithms

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